Brazil – a faded environmental star striving to win back its sparkle in time

It is no exaggeration to say that global sustainable development depends on Brazil. Hosting more than 60% of the Amazon rainforest with its unique biodiversity and climate system services, Brazil holds an important key to attaining various sustainable development goals. Brazil is also one of the world’s largest food exporters and holds important diplomatic capacity in multilateral processes. Several years of high deforestation rates, political conflict and polarisation, topped by the violent attack on the Brazilian Congress in January this year, have however caused strong international worry over Brazil’s ability to deliver on sustainability.

The environmental optimism connected to Lula’s comeback is based on the large reductions in deforestation that happened during his first two presidencies, from 2003 to 2010. Brazil’s yearly deforestation rate was reduced from 27.000 square kilometres in 2004 to 4.700 square kilometres in 2012[1]. During Bolsonaro’s presidency the yearly deforestation rate was between 10.000 and 13.000 square kilometres[2]. Territories controlled by indigenous peoples are proven to be the areas with least deforestation and best forest preservation. The Bolsonaro government’s active ignorance of indigenous peoples’ rights, and the high COVID-19 mortality rates in the Amazon have left many Brazilian indigenous communities in precarious situations. The current humanitarian crisis in Yanomami communities in Northern Brazil is the most acute. Illegal mining has boomed in Yanomami territories because of inadequate law enforcement, causing mercury contamination of water and food resources and other environmental harms. Consequently, the Yanomami now experience high levels of malnutrition, as well as increased child mortality, and increased exposure and vulnerability to malaria and other diseases[3].

Lula has promised to reverse both deforestation and the humanitarian crisis, and has hired back his environmental minister from 2003 to 2008, Marina Silva, and also, for the first time, appointed a minister of indigenous peoples, Sônia Guajajara. The re-opening of the Amazon Fund for projects to reduce deforestation, and new emergency operations to provide health care and evict illegal miners in the Yanomami territories are the first steps on Lula’s environmental agenda. However, amending years of neglect of sustainability concerns will not be a straightforward process.

The political situation for Lula and his high-profile ministers is quite different from the situation 20 years ago. The combination of large corruption scandals and political polarisation caused a landslide election for right wing political parties in last year’s general election. The centre-right parties lost most of their Congressional seats to parties further to the right, and Lula’s left-leaning coalition only holds 150 of 513 seats in Congress. To reach the needed majority support in Congress, Lula has had to include a wide range of left to centre-right politicians in his governmental base, including representatives of the powerful rural caucus, traditionally the strongest opponents to stricter implementation of forest policies.

In addition to the upcoming hard bargaining in Congress, state level opposition to increased anti-deforestation efforts is likely. Seven of the nine states in Brazil’s legal Amazon are now led by governors that supported Bolsonaro in the last election, and their focus is expected to be on economic development and resource extraction, not forest protection. What may save a compromise between developmental and forest preservation in the Amazon, is the pragmatism that has characterised Lula’s political career. If the government’s emphasis is placed on reducing illegal deforestation, increased attention to security and crime reduction in the vast Amazon region may be a welcome addition to the governors’ agendas.

Many high-level Bolsonaro supporters have also taken a more pragmatic stand in relation to the new government, and have worked actively to distance themselves from the mob that attacked the Congress in January. The attention to ministers Silva and Guajajara has also lifted the deforestation issue on the Brazilian political agenda. Nevertheless, time is working in Lula’s disfavour. Politics may move too slow to reverse the loss of biodiversity, carbon stock, and indigenous peoples’ livelihood that is the result of decades of unsustainable forest management. This month the deforestation rates for February 2023 were reported to be record high, and many actors have started to question Lula’s ability to deliver on his promise to reverse the trends[4]. From Brazilian research we know that the power vacuum following a regime change is an ideal opportunity for illegal land grabbing and deforestation. Despite the sigh of relief in October, it is beginning to dawn also on the most optimistic supporters that not even Lula has a magic button to press to instantly reduce deforestation in the Amazon. Continued and strong attention from the international community is needed to keep interlinked sustainability issues high on the Brazilian political agenda.